by Hank Stichter (Post Stafford trade)
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Staying with the selection people have been projecting for about 3 years now, Lawrence is about the safest quarterback prospect coming out of college since Andrew Luck. If Lawrence lives up to the hype then this could be the start of the Lawrence/Meyer dynasty… that’s still a way off, but hey, fun to speculate. Honestly I don’t know what else to say, this pick is a gimme.
2. New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
This pick also seems to be pretty set in stone. Wilson is another great quarterback prospect, who has phenomenal deep ball accuracy. He can escape the pocket and make plays with his legs also which is coveted in the NFL today. I am curious to see how he steps up at the next level, considering the top competition he played against last year was a primetime game against Coastal Carolina.
3. San Francisco 49ers* (From Miami via Houston): Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Lance is the quarterback that makes me the most excited out of anyone in this draft. He is a great decision maker with the football, has accuracy with his deep passes, and has an ideal build for a quarterback. Obviously the biggest question surrounding him is going to be if he can make the jump from FCS to NFL. He has only played in 17 college games at an FCS school, so there may be some transition time, but he could have the highest ceiling out of anyone in the draft if he pans out.
4. Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
Matt Ryan’s contract makes this pick a little trickier, as there are multiple years and A LOT of guaranteed money still left for the Falcons to think about replacing him. It looks like for now they will have to push forward with Matty Ice and what better way to do that then to get him one of the best weapons this draft has to offer. Pitts is a freak athlete and a matchup nightmare for defenses. He is so much more than a tight end, as he lined up at several different receiving positions last season at Florida and can easily run receiver routes. Truly a one of a kind player, the Falcons couldn’t find a scarier weapon to give Matt Ryan.
5. Cincinnati Bengals: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
Another one of the closest prospects to a sure thing, Sewell will provide Joe Burrow with some much needed protection, after he was sacked 32 times in not even a full 10 games. Burrow proved he could be a solid NFL quarterback but he won’t have much of a career if no one can protect his blindside. Sewell is a much-needed addition here and the Bengals should be extremely thankful if he is still available at this pick. While Sewell is the right choice if he is available, it is tempting to think about how fun it would be if they drafted Jamaar Chase here.
6. Miami Dolphins (From Philadelphia): Jamaar Chase, WR, LSU
I probably would have said the Dolphins would be picking Chase back when they had the 3rd pick, so them getting him here with the potential of Sewell or Pitts also still being on the board is a huge win for them, especially considering they acquired an additional first rounder out of it. Chase is the best receiver in the draft and will instantly become the top target for Tua when he gets to Miami. The fact that he sat out last season and is still unanimously the number one receiver across most boards show the talent he has.
7. Detroit Lions: DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Given the offseason the Lions have had this pick is either going to be traded down for a quarterback needy team, or it literally has to be a receiver. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones left in free agency, leaving the Lions with the worst receiving core in the NFL and have a new incoming quarterback in Jared Goff. My guess would be if they do trade down, they will not trade down far in order for them to still get their hands on the top level of receiving talent in this draft. However staying put and getting the Heisman-winning receiver is another great option. Smith is a fantastic route runner with great hands and can be dangerous after the catch. Truly a complete receiver, the biggest question for Smith in the NFL will be his durability.
8. **Chicago Bears (Mock Trade from Carolina): Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
This trade makes a lot of sense for both teams. If the Bears don’t step it up, both coach Matt Nagy and GM Ryan Pace are likely out before the season is over… oh, and their current starting quarterback is Andy Dalton. They were trying to pull off a trade for Russell Wilson that seems to be off now, and so this is one of their last hopes. The Bears, having to move up from 20, are going to give the Panthers the most for this pick and so it is the offer they are most likely to take if teams come calling for a quarterback here. Justin Fields is a great dual threat quarterback. He has a strong arm with accuracy to back it up and possesses 4.4 speed. Unless one of Pitts, Chase, or Sewell fall here (which they shouldn’t) the Panthers should definitely trade down to a quarterback needy team.
9. Denver Broncos: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
The Broncos would probably love to trade down if they are faced with this board when their pick rolls around, but I don’t see them loving Mac Jones enough to pick him here. I personally think Parsons is still a top 5 player in this draft, despite sitting out last year. Parsons is the complete package at linebacker. He excels at playing through blocks, he finishes tackles, and can be successful when he is used as a pass rusher. He will be an anchor on any defense for years to come for whoever drafts him.
10. Dallas Cowboys: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
Rounding out the top 10 we have the Dallas Cowboys, a team with one of the most porous defenses I have ever seen. Adding the top corner in the draft would definitely go a long way in helping that. Surtain excels in man-to-man coverage, and can take the opponents best receiving option out of the game. Despite the NFC East having awful quarterback play for the Cowboys to go up against, it never hurts to add a lock-down corner.
11. New York Giants: Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
While this pick may be a bit of a reach for Paye, the Giants need pass rushers so bad that it hardly matters here. Paye is an athletic freak who showed drastic improvement each year he was at Michigan. The Giants are hoping that improvement continues, and if it does, Paye has the most likely shot to be dominant of any of the edge rushers in the draft.
12. Philadelphia Eagles (From Miami via San Francisco): Jalen Waddle, WR, Alabama
While it stings to have to draft receivers in the first round of back-to-back drafts, it probably stings even more for Eagles fans knowing they selected Jalen Raegor one spot ahead of Justin Jefferson in last years draft. Waddle is hands down the most explosive play-maker the draft has to offer, and should serve as Jalen Hurts primary target right out the gates. The guy is fast, what more do you want from me?
13. **Washington Football Team (Mock Trade with Los Angeles Chargers): Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
If Mac Jones slides past the Broncos he becomes somewhat of a wildcard on where he will land. And while I don’t see the Patriots taking him even if he is available at 15, I doubt a quarterback needy team would want him to get that far. Washington currently has Ryan Fitzpatrick and Taylor Heineke on the roster, both capable quarterbacks but I am sure no one is expecting either to be the long-term solution. Mac Jones is an interesting prospect because on paper he looks like he could be a contender for one of the top spots in the draft, but it is hard to know if he is really that good or just a product of one of best offenses of all time in college football. He also doesn’t have the mobility of the other prospects in this class, but he has accuracy that can match almost any other quarterback in this draft.
14. Minnesota Vikings: Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
Last year Minnesota hit a home run with Justin Jefferson, they will be hoping to do the same with Rashawn Slater. If Slater falls here in the draft this should be a no-brain pick for the Vikings. Despite DESPERATELY needing help on the defensive line, particularly on the edge, the value just isn’t there in this draft for it and Slater is definitely the best player on the board here. Protecting Kirk Cousins and providing more protection in the run game for Dalvin Cook will be a huge value add for the Vikings here.
15. New England Patriots: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
If Mac Jones is available here, my guess would be the Patriots would trade down (more likely) or pick him (less likely). But with him off the board here, Horn is a likely candidate. for the selection. The son of Joe Horn, Jaycee is a big physical corner who can match up size wise with just about any receiver the NFL has to offer. Knowing the Patriots, don’t be surprised if they trade down in the draft tonight.
16. Arizona Cardinals: Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
The run on corners continues here with Arizona. After the departure of long time star corner Patrick Peterson, the Cardinals have a vacancy in the secondary that Farley will fill well. Farley is another physical corner and has the potential to be the first corner taken in the draft. Farley is another player that if he hadn’t opted out could have gone much higher in the draft.
17. Las Vegas Raiders: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, ILB, Norte Dame
The Raiders defense is bad. I mean REALLY bad. They ranked in the bottom three last season in terms of yards allowed, which means they can really just draft the best defensive player available here. Owusu-Koramoah does everything well and just like he did for the Irish last season, he can provide much needed leadership for a seemingly lost defense.
18. Miami Dolphins: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
If the draft works out this way for the Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa should be one of the happiest people on the planet. Grabbing the best receiver, and a top offensive lineman? Yes, please. If Miami’s defense performs the same as it did last year, with these offensive improvements it wouldn’t surprise me if the Dolphins beat out the Bills for the AFC East. Alijah Vera-Tucker has experience as both a guard and tackle, but projects better as a guard in the pros. My guess would be he doesn’t last this long though and could go as high as 8.
19. **Los Angeles Chargers (Mock trade from Washington): Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
If wide receiver is the deepest position in the draft, offensive line isn’t very far behind. In this scenario the Chargers are able to move down and still get an impactful offensive lineman that would be in play for them even if they do stay at 13 and Slater is off the board. Darrisaw is one of the better pure pass protectors in the draft, and that is exactly what the Chargers will be looking for as they look to protect their young franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert.
20. **Carolina Panthers (Mock trade from Chicago Bears): Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
Despite having two great receiving options in Ryan Anderson and DJ Moore, both of their contracts are up at the end of the season and Elijah Moore is incredible value at this selection. Moore would go much higher than this in most drafts, but the amount of depth at the position in this draft has caused him to fall. Offensive lineman or corner are both options here for the Panthers as well.
21. Indianapolis Colts: Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
Boy would Carson Wentz love to see this pick. Carson Wentz was sack 50 TIMES this past year, and didn’t even play the entire season. The Colts want to make sure that they are protecting their new quarterback, and the edge of their line definitely needs some work and Jenkins should be able to help a ton, most likely on the right side although he notched starts on both sides at Oklahoma State.
22. Tennessee Titans: Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
Tennessee lost a load of talent at corner in free agency, and so they work to replenish some of that here with Newsome II. Newsome needs to stay healthy, but if he can he could end up being the best corner out of this draft. Similar to Taylor Swift, Newsome is well-known for his breakups. He had 21 pass break ups in the past two years over the span of just 15 games, earning him All Big-10 honors.
23. New York Jets* (From Seattle): Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
If New York wants one of the top two running backs in this draft they need to draft them here. There is about to be a slew of running back needy teams drafting, and New York will have their pick of the top prospects at the position here. Etienne and Najee Harris are pretty neck and neck in terms of upside, but Etienne is a better receiving threat out of the backfield, and is more likely to break off big plays unlike everyone else currently on the Jets roster. This would be a big help for incoming quarterback Zach Wilson.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Harris is the running back I like the most in this draft, and he is going to the most running back needy team in the league. Harris is a great combination of speed and strength, and is also good at catching out of the backfield. The Steelers have many needs though after a lot of departures from last season, but Harris presents the best value with this pick.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Los Angeles Rams): Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame
If you are the Jaguars you have your new franchise quarterback, NOW PROTECT HIM! I will be visibly upset if they don’t get help along the offensive line with this pick. Yes receivers are nice, but there will be bounties of them available when the Jags are picking in the second round. Eichenberg has been a quick climber of draft boards lately and will help protect Lawrence’s blindside.
26. Cleveland Browns: Jaelen Philips, EDGE, Miami
It would surprise me if Philips is still here during the draft, but if he doesn’t get drafted by the Giants, Vikings, or Raiders I could see him slide in the draft. Philips would provide great depth to the Browns’ pass rush, which is much need considering the oft injured Jadeveon Clowney is currently slotted opposite Myles Garrett. With this pick they are really just grabbing the best defensive player available.
27. Baltimore Ravens: Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
The Ravens are another team that is headed into next year with just a horrendous receiving core and Bateman is a steal this late in the draft. The Ravens have not hit at the receiver position in recent drafts, despite drafting several in the early rounds, they will be hoping Bateman breaks that streak here. With another pick just a few slots away, I have them taking Bateman here before the receiver-needy Saints or Packers get a chance to take him instead.
28. New Orleans Saints: Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
The Saints love to get creative with players on offense, and Moore gives them another opportunity to do so. The Saints have no depth behind Michael Thomas, and Moore is an electric player who will no doubt bolster the receiving core. He is a little undersized for his position, but after he catches the ball he runs like a running back and is very hard to bring down in space. With Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara already on the team, it could be scary to see what trickery the Saints come up with Moore in the mix.
29. Green Bay Packers: Christian Barmore, DL, Alabama
If Barmore played all season like he did in the playoffs he could be looking at a top-10 pick. He could very well end up playing at that level of talent in the pros, but consistency will be the biggest question. Barmore is incredibly disruptive and was the best defensive player for the Tide in the playoffs. He can excel as both a pass rusher and run defender, but will most likely be used for the former.
30. Buffalo Bills: Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina
On the one hand, it is a little crazy to have 3 running backs go in the first round, but on the other hand there is a big drop off at the position after Williams and if the Bills want a running back they are going to have a very limited selection in the late 2nd round. Williams projects as a true every-down back in the NFL, and is very hard to bring down in the open field. Over 700 of his 1,100 yards last season were after contact, pair that with his ability to run routes and catch and that is a scary running back.
31. Baltimore Ravens (From Kansas City): Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami
Baltimore lost their two best edge rushers from last season, and it is hard to pass on Rousseau this late in the draft. He had 15.5 sacks as a freshman at Miami, but underwhelmed in his sophomore year before sitting out last season, making him a boom or bust type of prospect. They could also address offensive tackle with this pick, but there is better value here in Rousseau.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jason Oweh, EDGE, Penn State
While it may not be the most analytical statement, I became a fan of Oweh from my dad who won’t stop talking about him. Obviously the Buccaneers will be trying to compete for another Super Bowl this upcoming season, and even though they are set at pass rusher they aren’t very deep. Oweh is a bit raw but will do well learning from and playing behind Shaquill Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. He is 6’5’’, 257, but the craziest thing is he ran a 4.37 in the 40 yard dash. With one of the most talented rosters in the league, the Bucs can afford to take a chance on a guy like Oweh, who has one of the higher ceilings out of the defensive players in the draft.