by Nick Roby
North Carolina 11-5 (6-3) @ Clemson 10-5 (4-5) 7pm ACC Network
The Tigers are looking to bounce back after a tough road loss on Saturday against Duke with a win against a hot North Carolina team at home. Clemson has lost 4 out of the past 5 games by an average of 25 points. Here are keys I am looking for in the game tonight if the Tigers are going to get back into the win column:
1 – Making shots early
There are a few different aspects that the Tigers will want to improve upon against the Tar Heels and beyond, but Clemson needs to get out to a good start. The past few games, Clemson has gotten down by double digits early and have had to fight back against big deficits if they want a chance in the game. If they can make some easy shots early, it will build into the confidence on both ends of the floor and provide more fluid offensive possessions. There is something different about your mindset as a player when you are only a possession or so away early in the first half verses feeling like you need to start making a lot of 3-pointers right away.
2 – Better 2 point to 3 point shot selection ratio
Clemson likes the 3 ball and I do too. It is great when you can make them because they can give a big momentum push for the team. However, the Tigers need to make a much better percentage if they are to compete in the game. A bigger factor I see is settling for 3 pointers instead of looking inside and taking the mid-range jumpers that are there. I know analytics are saying to take more 3’s now a days, but when you have shooters like a Dawes or Hunter who can make those mid-range jumpers, you need to take them when the defense offers them.
Last 5 Games 3-Point Field Goals
| Team | Made | Attempted | Percentage % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | 5 | 23 | 21.7 |
| Georgia Tech | 9 | 18 | 50 |
| Florida State | 5 | 30 | 16.7 |
| Louisville | 7 | 35 | 20 |
| Duke | 5 | 21 | 23.8 |
| Total | 31 | 127 | 24.4 |
3 – Aamir Simms
A big key tonight is getting Aamir Simms involved early and often in the game. Simms is a force on the inside and is one of the best distributors of the ball on the team. The Tigers should look to Simms early on the inside through ball screens or on the low post. From there, he can take his man one on one or look for the open shooters. A big question during games this year is can Simms stay out of foul trouble early. Simms can at times pick up 2 fouls early in the 1st Half and consequently sitting on the bench for long stretches of time. The Louisville game has been the one bright spot in this stretch and coincidently or not, Simms did not pick up his 1st foul until their was 15 minutes left in the 2nd Half.
4 – Opponent Field Goal %
In the Tigers last 4 losses they have given up an average of 30.5 made field goals per game for a whopping 52.8%. It is hard to win when your opponent is shooting that well on offense. Some of this is due to a bad run of luck coming off of a COVID pause and playing teams when they are starting to become hot (take the Virginia game for example). However, there have been too many open shooters and too many miscommunications on who is guarding the open shooter, especially when Clemson’s offense has not been clicking. Louisville shot 31.6% from the field when the Tigers won. Now, I don’t expect that kind of shooting percentage from UNC, but I do expect them to look inside early with their bigs and take what the defense gives them. If the Tigers can keep this number in the low 40’s, then, they can give themselves a chance to win.
Opponent Field Goal % Last 4 Losses
| Team | Made | Attempted | Percentage % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | 34 | 56 | 60.7 |
| Georgia Tech | 31 | 54 | 57.4 |
| Florida State | 29 | 60 | 48.3 |
| Duke | 28 | 61 | 45.9 |
| Total | 122 | 231 | 52.8 |